Global Arms Exports – Winners, losers & trends in the race to rearm [Video]

Since 2022, demand on the global arms market has spiked, and the race has been on to secure contracts & market share.

Two weeks ago we looked at the collapse of Russia’s position in the market. Today, we tell the rest of the story, looking at the winners and losers so far – and emerging trends.

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
At one point I refer to CSIS estimates on defence spending – they are in fact from an IISS publication

All normal caveats and disclaimers apply.

I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.

Please review the SIPRI methodology and consider viewing my previous video on Russian arms exports:
https://youtu.be/Wdap15tWnfI

Readings and Sources:

Arms transfer data primarily sourced from the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database https://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods

Cover image from:
https://www.nationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023/

US FY 2023 Arms Transfers – US Department of State
https://www.state.gov/fiscal-year-2023-u-s-arms-transfers-and-defense-trade/

US DSCA – Poland JASSM Purchase
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/poland-agm-158b-2-joint-air-surface-standoff-missile-extended-range

Featured Rheinmetall statements and reports
https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02/2024-02-12-rheinmetall-builds-new-ammunition-factory-in-unterluess-ground-breaking-ceremony-with-chancellor-scholz

https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/03/2024-03-14-rheinmetall-financial-figures-2023

Reporting on Swiss policy
https://www.rferl.org/a/swiss-parliament-blocks-arms-exports-ukraine/32440097.html

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-swiss-envoy-defends-ban-on-ammo-exports/a-65416234

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-government-rejects-german-request-re-export-swiss-ammunition-ukraine-2022-11-03/

Increase in NATO defence spending
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_222664.htmIncrease in global defence spending

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/13/global-defence-spending-rises-9-per-cent-to-record-22tn-dollars

Reporting on Indian S-400s
https://www.nationalreview.com/photos/poland-armed-forces-day-2023/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/russia-aims-to-deliver-two-s-400-air-defence-units-by-2024-end-as-payment-woes-ease-up/articleshow/103072429.cms?from=mdr

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/putins-war-delays-delivery-of-second-s-400-squadron/articleshow/90867785.cms

Reporting on refinery strikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/russia-s-ryazan-refinery-is-on-fire-after-drone-attack-tass-says

Stockpiling
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-only-has-20000-high-explosive-artillery-shells-left-report-2023-06-19/

Reporting on contract losses
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/northrop-grumman-1-56-billion-loss-b-21/

Featured image on Red Sea operations
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-targeted-bulk-carrier-number-us-war-destroyers-red-sea-2024-03-09/

US interest in RoK shipbuilders
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/in-south-korea-del-toro-courts-major-shipbuilders-to-set-up-shop-in-us/

RoK Arms Deliveries
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/09/16/asia-pacific/politics/south-korea-ukraine-weapons-factory/

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/indian-army-orders-100-additional-k9-howitzers

https://www.navaltoday.com/2020/05/19/philippine-navys-first-2600-ton-frigate-delivered-sets-sail-for-the-philippines/

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/09/poland-south-korea-wrangle-over-big-ticket-weapons-financing/

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/can-germanys-big-cats-resist-south-koreas-black-panther-invasion/

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2024/02/02/south-korea-to-start-mass-production-of-kf-21-fighter-jets/

Delivery of Italian built FREMM
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/12/first-italian-built-fremm-delivered-to-egypt-reaches-alexandria/

JF-17
https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/nigerian-air-force-inducts-three-jf-17-thunder-multirole-aircraft/

USN supplier bottlenecks (featuring mk48)
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2024/02/06/supplier-bottlenecks-threaten-us-navy-effort-to-grow-arms-stockpiles/

Turkish Exports
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2024/01/08/turkeys-defense-aerospace-exports-rose-by-25-last-year/

Timestamps
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:00 — What Am I Talking About
00:01:38 — The Arms Trade Leaderboard
00:06:57 — The Market Shifts
00:07:58 — The USA
00:13:42 — Europe
00:20:28 — Other Rising Providers
00:33:46 — The Biggest Losers?
00:51:10 — The Forward Trajectory
01:01:56 — Brakes On Sales Volumes
01:04:56 — Channel Update